제7회 LH 글로벌비즈니스컨벤션GBC 2 1 기조연설1 – Transcript

00:02Yes, now the floor is yours please. Thank you. Thank you very much and You know good afternoon to everyone here It's fitting It's fitting that we're having this conversation on this important topic here in Busan today Busan, which is a city shaped by a major port a

00:31waterfront complex topography and a strong local identity The film that we've just seen I think capture nicely some of the key message over what kind of futures Should we prepare for I?

00:47Would like to begin here today one step earlier before looking at the future maybe looking at what kind of future did past generations Dram dream of past generations of urban planners and parts Generations of urban managers I will look back At how cities were planned What happens when growth

01:17Departed from what had been originally envisioned and what history teaches us About turning urban growth into prosperity Busan's development I think reflects decades of choices about its port its industry Its infrastructure its land and also its neighborhoods and its people

01:46This tour these choices were shaped by national development frameworks and translated into urban form Through sustained local action. I think that's very important to bear in mind for Latin American Caribbean cities where I come from we see that There was a future that was also planned also envisaged and There was

02:10Expectations about population growth about housing demand about infrastructure and also about urban expansion This is not to suggest that past planners were wrong Planning always requires adjustments and also always requires a future demand But every plan carried assumptions about the place

02:35about the location about the pace and about the urban form and growth and Three assumptions were especially Influencing in shaping this urban form modern planning Assumed that growth could be projected that formal markets would absorb the demand and also the Development would largely follow designated areas

03:05Those assumptions were reasonably at the time, but governments cannot plan land housing roads Water systems or public utilities without a view of future demand The expectation was that planning would connect growth To housing to infrastructure to services and opportunity and therefore to prosperity

03:30The weakness was the rigidity that came along with these assumptions and that over time Proof that urban form and growth was not the same as it was envisioned cities continued to grow beyond Plans formal plans, but the benefits of urbanization

04:00Remain deeply uneven where formal planning and formal markets did not reach urban growth Urban growth did not stop Where households, you know went ahead and found land Build housing and created neighborhoods through other channels mostly informal channels The IDB's new framework estimates that housing deficits affect approximately

04:2940% of households in Latin America and the Caribbean and about 25% of the population still lives in informal settlements across the region This is why urban growth is not the same as prosperity a city can expand While many residents remain disconnected from adequate housing infrastructure Services and opportunity the answer is not to rebuild the city from scratch or to treat existing

04:59Neighborhoods as planning failures. It is to bring the real city into planning and delivery decisions if the city changes beyond the plan the next plan must learn and Be able to adapt evidence Needs to evidence has shown and you know, I have brought here today a

05:27large study that we conducted With NYU and also with Chris and that showed us that For decades of density change across eight sixty-eight cities Are different to what we originally Envision and therefore needed to be adapted and this publication capture what it should look like to

05:572050 across 20-year horizon These projections are not predictions. They allow governments to test where growth may occur What land and infrastructure may be required and how today's choices may affect future opportunity?

06:17I think the deeper lesson is institutional Evidence creates value when governments can develop it at the right scale Use it in decisions and most importantly revise the plans accordingly Uncertainty does not make planning less important. It changes what good planning, you know must be able to do

06:44But evidence alone cannot turn growth into sure prosperity First governments need the ability to generate maintain and interpret and use place a specific data Second they must coordinate decisions across land housing Infrastructure services and economic development and this very often does not happen

07:13third people procedures and institutional continuity are needed to implement review and revise Course as necessary the message is therefore not You know about local capacity or data is about the ability to develop and use evidence as a foundational step To ensure that our institutional capacity is adaptive

07:45Disabilities can help us connect urban growth to housing To services and also to opportunity and shared prosperity These capabilities are therefore Common but the priorities they produce must be tailored for each city that we work on a scale itself is a source of growth on in

08:112007 McKinsey conducted a study that showed that for Latin America and the Caribbean 60% of the entire GDP was generated by less than 200 cities Therefore is still scale base off for people today More recent IDV research Finds that people living in large cities earn about

08:3926% more than comparable people in rural areas and The region wide urban wage premium is also close to 20% This is not unique to our region and I won't not go into details because we have the next speaker We'll talk about much better data from the OECD But what we found about cross-country data again jointly generated with the OECD is that

09:08doubling of a city's population is associated to a five percent increase in productivity and That gain is not automatic Where metropolitan governance is fragmented productivity can be around six percent lower Than where it is not fragmented and metropolitan level governance Recovers roughly half of that loss

09:36This is the same adaptive capacity. We just discussed it connects growth Not only to housing and services, but to measurable economic performance With that economic lens in place. Let's look at how this adaptive priorities differ from city to city Let me take you to one of the examples that we

10:04You know that again, we worked on in Latin America and the Caribbean These two cities I have Baranquilla on the left hand side and San Jose in the right hand side Show us that adaptive capacity is transferable But urban priorities are place-based. They are place-specific in Baranquilla priority priorities include stronger

10:33public investment management Green infrastructure and social inclusion and Baranquilla has an extremely went in that front In San Jose historic center revitalization connects public space mobility basic services and economic activity and The institutional approach may be common But the response that is generated by each of the local governments is a specific Despite those difference

11:03cities planning and their uncertainty share severe adaptive principles Adaptive planning advances when local priorities national systems and long-term partnerships moving the same direction and our Korea IDV Cooperation has been very helpful in this front No city can build and sustain capacity alone

11:28Local governments bring place-based priorities and delivery experience in unique ways While national governments provide policy frameworks and enabling systems that must be applied across the territory Long-term partners like us sustain evidence learning implementation Beyond a single project or planning cycle again, Korea

11:55IDV, you know in its partnership and its cooperation have made this very concrete We have an annual training program where we bring several dozens of Officials from across Latin America and the Caribbean since 2014 and more recently you know and and more recently Mollit began supporting the seed fund in 2019

12:25Which again allows us to exchange You know experiences and to learn institutionally in between both regions The point is not the number of activities. It is how sustained cooperation can help us You know work across regions in our learning process Let me also Mention that you know for this

12:50Learning process to move forward especially in the context of smart cities and adaptation. We must first protect the fundamentals land basic infrastructure and No regret investments are necessary to ensure that living conditions are improved and they're all possible future scenarios Secondly is necessary to use reliable reliable local evidence to observe how conditions are changing and guiding decisions

13:20thirdly Design must be made for revision when necessary faced and Decisions that can be reverted over time allow citizens to learn Repair reprioritize and also to respond to a changing environment Having said all that I think to make technology is an enabler technology can support this capacity but technology