Altın İçin Ara Seçim Sonrası Beklentilerim – Transcript

00:01Hello, I am Tun Ciatrolo. Welcome to my gold commentary and today I will start with a general assessment. After that I will move on to the figures. Now we have the American midterm elections ahead of us. And last week there was a massive decline in the markets.

00:18Not only in gold, but there was also a major drop in the US stock market. And as a result, since the American elections are now very close, we are seeing a slight recovery in the market today. We may see some increases in gold as well.

00:36Under normal conditions, we would expect the market to move upward after the American elections and for gold to rise as well. But as I said, under normal conditions, because an election uncertainty will have been eliminated. Secondly, there could be a divided Congress.

00:54A divided Congress means there is a House of Representatives in America. And there is also a Senate, unlike our system, we only have the Grand National Assembly. So in addition to that House of Representatives, there is a Senate above it.

01:10Both together are called Congress. And what is called a divided Congress means one party is dominant on one side and another party is dominant on the other, since there are primarily two major parties in America, a situation where Republicans dominate the Senate and Democrats dominate the House of Representatives would be a divided Congress.

01:37And a divided Congress is something the market loves very much because all power is not concentrated in one party or in the hands of one president. They cannot simply do whatever they want and put the economy in a difficult position.

01:53They necessarily have to reach an agreement with the opposition. If the opposition proposes something really foolish, the president can say, no, I am vetoing this and so on, so on. So it forces the parties to find middle ground.

02:09Finding a middle ground is something the market loves, of course, of course. Well, it's something that loves very much or other Wall Street does, but having power concentrated in one place is not good. But right now, power is concentrated with the Republicans and President Trump has caused major problems in the markets by saying things like, I will impose these tariffs or I will raise these taxes and so on.

02:38Now a divided Congress would be positive for the market. What if there isn't a divided Congress? But rather that blue wave the Democrats have been talking about for years where they take the majority in both the House and the Senate.

02:56It is something they constantly talk about but never happens. Let's say it actually happens this time. What happens then? President Trump still remains in office. You need 60 senators. You would need 10 more senators on top of 50 to have the possibility of removing President Trump from office.

03:19Therefore, since that is unlikely to happen in the current situation, the Democrats might want to pass certain laws but President Trump would veto them. In that case, they would then have to compromise with him at some point.

03:35At some point, this is not an ideal result. However, it is better than the current situation because all the power is not concentrated in President Trump again. Well, if both of these scenarios, meaning either a divided Congress or one entirely under Democratic Party control would be a better situation, then the current one, then we should have seen a rise in these markets.

04:04On the contrary, we saw huge sell-offs on Friday. Why is that? Because we're not under normal circumstances. Because after these elections, a new air operation against Iran is expected.

04:22Why is such a thing expected? Because during the process leading up to the election, Iran was actually attacking ships passing through the Oman territorial waters that did not pay a tribute to Iran to pass through.

04:41Aghihon to pass through, but when it carried out these attacks, America would provide some responses to deter them. However, a few weeks before the election, they stopped this and Iran even sank a ship.

04:58It sank a ship passing through the Oman territorial waters. It also hit other ships. America did not provide much of a response. And what happened? There is a massive rise in oil prices. This cannot go on like this. I mean, Iran cannot continue to attack ships that want to pass through here.

05:20I mean, this is not something that can be accepted. Therefore, America will bomb them and will bomb them until they force Iran to give up. Of course, we won't give up even though it seems like they will continue to say no matter how much we are bombed, we will still sink ships.

05:39It is not that simple. It is not something that will happen with a one day operation, but America will at least try to achieve a result with an operation lasting a few weeks, two or three weeks. So when America tries something like this, Israel may also accompany America.

06:04When Israel accompanies America instead of attacking America and Israel, Iran is already saying that it will launch attacks on Muslim countries. Neighboring countries. It had previously carried out attacks on neighbouring Muslim countries as well.

06:23It had carried out terrorist attacks, especially in the United Arab Emirates, such as hitting a civilian airport or attacking a tourist area. It is said that it could do the same things again. All of this causes oil prices to rise even further, risks to increase even more, and we could see even greater drops in gold.

06:47We can see it in the markets as well. That is where the trouble is. The trouble is here. I wish I could give good news, but there is such a problem here. I mean, it doesn't look like a to buy gold right now.

07:06However, I think these problems can also be overcome. It could be within this month. I mean, depending on how quickly America can achieve results, this can be seen within this month.

07:24As you can see, this wave trend indicator on the daily chart has come down quite a bit. When it came down like this before, it was the end of June. After wavering a bit, it had risen.

07:40It will inevitably rise. I had said it could reach the 4805,000 region. It only had the stamina and strength to reach 4,700. Now, therefore, I believe that after this Iran incident, the Iran attacks incident, ends there will be a rise in gold again.

08:05And also, let me remind you of this. This rise will be a rise similar to the one I expected in August. I think we could once again target the 4,700 to 4,800 area.

08:26Such a rise will occur and give you an opportunity to sell at a higher price than the current one. I mean, if you bought at 5,500 or 5,600, I don't think it will reach those prices.

08:45Because I said the same thing in August. I mean, I said this in July, too. In August, I said it would give you an opportunity, but your losses might not be covered and it could drop even further afterward. And as far as I can see, many people in that environment didn't say my loss has recovered a bit, let me sell and buy back when it drops.

09:11They said if I'm at a loss, why should I sell? Now, we might experience something similar again in the coming period. And when we look back at it, the past, for example, look at 2011. After a huge rise, there was a drop, a rally, another rally, then a drop in sideways movement, a third rally, and then a long-term decline.

09:40It had reached its peak in September 2011. The downward trend actually started here in April 2013. Yes, so it can be said that way. It fluctuated a lot in between and I would like to draw your attention to this as well.

10:00Even then, the decline in gold remained limited to 20%. And in the 2008-2009 crisis where very major events took place, the decline in gold from the peak was 34%.