제7회 LH 글로벌비즈니스컨벤션GBC 3 1 주제발표1 – Transcript

00:00And now it's time for the presentation session. So in this session, we will talk about the various forms of uncertainty. And let us begin our first presentation. So I would like to invite our first keynote speaker and presentation speaker.

00:17Our first presentation is about delivering disaster resilience where is Horace. Versons from the Pacific and Myanmar will be delivered by Zuzina MacArthur. This is a risk management specialist at the work bank.

00:34So now, the floor is yours. Could you please come up to the stage? All right. And ladies and gentlemen, please welcome Orobe Ken. Thank you very much. Yes, please.

00:55Which one? Can't see it. All right. The floor is yours, please. Tess, can you hear me? Apologies. My legs are incredibly sore because I was scuba diving on the weekend because I've come all the way from Papua New Guinea.

01:13My name is Georgina MacArthur. I'm a disaster risk management specialist with the World Bank team in the Pacific. And we cover 10 island countries, including Papua New Guinea. And I'm absolutely delighted to be in Busan.

01:29And I'm apologizing for my Australian accent in advance. I'm sorry if I'm getting pronunciations wrong, but Busan and Port Moresby actually share something quite significant. Both are posted at APEC. Busan in 2005 and Port Moresby in 2018.

01:45Both built up their waterfronts for the momentous occasion. And I've only been here for 24 hours, but I've become aware of water storage and water capturer and water drainage that's already in place in Busan Center and also last mile warning strategies that I'll take home back to the countries that I support.

02:05So for slide one, we can see this is getting quite micro and talking about the countries which I support. And I'm gonna talk about the four vulnerable and capacity constrained countries that I'm mainly supporting over the last five years. And some of these countries hold similar themes and similar contexts.

02:26So everything I'm gonna show you comes from our work in Myanmar, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands and Tuvalu. And they've been chosen because they look nothing alike, but have similar fragility and compounding struggles. For reference, PNG, the complete population of the country, the census data that we have is 10 and a half million down to our tiniest recipient, our tiniest receiver of World Bank finance,

02:53Tuvalu, a country of 8,000 people. So we work with the Global Facility for Disaster Risk Reduction and the City Resilience Program. And we've taken the same method from the Pacific to Myanmar where disasters and conflict compound with each other.

03:08So the first panel, what we do, we develop urban and resilience diagnostics and turning hazard exposure into investment decisions. We match the diagnostic to the data that we have, that can be global, that can be contextual, that can be regional.

03:24And then we grapple with the capacity decision that's in front of the city and not necessarily to the budget that's available in the government coffers at that point. Panel two, that shows that the why now, why is this important now?

03:40The Pacific urban populations will double by 2050 on current projections. Urban centers already generate half to 70% of national income and they're growing to the most hazard prone land there is. Panel three, you'll see is the evidence base that we've been working on.

03:57So far we've developed 38 urban area diagnostics and exposure analysis. We've completed these in the last year. We've also done seven rapid city scans, two detailed multi-hazard assessments and one critical hazard assessment and maybe some of the different kinds of data will come out later in our panel discussion.

04:20Panel four is our collaborative relationship work which is what I'm most proud of. We work with these tiny nations, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Samoa, Solomon Islands and Tuvalu and we're very inclusive with our workshops and data gathering and basically to solve the most crucial problems and come out with contextual and fit for purpose options.

04:41So where all of this actually sits is that the risk curve for the Pacific is actually steepening. As I mentioned, we've completed 38 urban area diagnostics across 10 Pacific countries and the headline is actually quite simple.

05:03Exposure is rising faster than the hazard itself because urban growth is going to the wrong places. If you look at the chart, these are the real cities, not averages. The number of people exposed to river and surface flooding today and in 2050.

05:18Honiara, which is the capital of the Solomon Islands, goes from 25,000 people to 84,000 moving from second place to first out of all 38 we looked at and it's fringe, fringe of the city, Tandaya, Milango jumps from eight and 10 to second and fourth.

05:37So three of the top four in the Solomon Islands. Hold on to that because I'll come back to Honiara in a couple of slides. Across the whole set, the picture is the same. People exposed to flooding go up from, go up from 159,000 to 360,000 by 2050.

05:56I know I'm speaking about small numbers but in these countries this really matters. This is an increase of 126% even as a lawyer following the OECD. That is a figure that is worth reporting. Coastal flooding nearly doubles.

06:13Earthquake exposure goes up to 130% and cyclone at 74% increase. So I've mentioned coastal flooding. It's a bit of a different beast. This is really focused on the ash hole countries, our small countries of the Marshall Islands, Kiribati and Tuvalu.

06:33It's quite a different hazard. It's a different geography and it needs a different kind of analysis and answer. So that's the projection and I'll make the report that this data is pulled from available at the end available. So to jump to Myanmar which is quite a progression but Myanmar is the case.

06:53I wanna use what happens when a disaster lands on top of a conflict. This draws on a disaster. FCV nexus diagnostic that colleagues in the GFDR are produced this year so I'm presenting their findings on their behalf.

07:08Starting with the numbers on the left. In Rakhine after cyclone mocha, households lost a third of their productive assets. But the welfare loss, what is actually cost them to recover came to more than nine times their annual income. Look at Chin, Chin lost far fewer assets.

07:28Yes, it's yet it's welfare losses we're almost as disproportionate. That's the finding that really matters here where conflict is chronic. Counting damaged assets badly understates the harm. Incomes, the findings found that incomes are undiversified and households have no buffer.

07:47Some projections were saying that households were gonna take 15 years to recover back to the neutral state pre-disaster. People cope by borrowing from their own future. Less food, children out of school. Tools and livestock sold.

08:05And so the diagnostic that the World Bank's produced also looks at why the response stalled. After the 2025 earthquake, for example, doctors from the civil disobedience movement were blocked from entering Segang. Relief itself became heavily contested.

08:22And because control differs district by district in Myanmar risk had to be read sub-nationally and national assessment would describe an administrative map that no longer matches how risk is actually managed on the ground. So the question the team asked was not what should be done but what can still be delivered.

08:42The right hand side is the answer that the diagnostic concludes. And the point is that a menu can exist at all multi-partner emergency response, flexible procurement, pre-agreed playbook so a consortium can keep working when an area changes hands.

08:59Early warnings, that simple and local short messages in local languages, community radio and channels that don't need the internet. Which is interesting to speak about in such a technologically advanced conference as today but it's data that you can actually obtain.