moka · Transcript · · Updated
제7회 LH 글로벌비즈니스컨벤션GBC 3 2 주제발표2 – Transcript
Video by moka · Watch the original on YouTube
Summary
AI-generated from the transcript. Verify details against the source video.
- Professor Yang Kim states that every city was designed for a climate that no longer exists because planning standards are calibrated on historical past weather.
- The speaker explains that static planning cannot hit a moving climate target, requiring a shift from predict-then-act to monitor-and-adapt.
- The methodology proposes three shifts: continuous diagnosis using data, flexible systems at the neighborhood scale, and shared coordination among government, businesses, and citizens.
Use this video with Pro
Reading, copying and transcript downloads are free. Create saved AI results for this video with a signed-in Pro account ($9/month).
Transcript
Search ignores accents. All transcript text stays visible.
All right, it's time for the next presentation. So I would like to invite Professor Kim Yong Ch of the Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology Kais will present on cities facing a moving target.
All right. Now ladies and gentlemen, please welcome him Cat. >> Okay. Good afternoon. Good afternoon everyone. Uh thank you to LH and the global corporate center for the invitation. Uh my name is Yang Kim. Uh I'm associate professor at KAIST where I lead urban design lab and smart city research center.
My title today is cities facing a moving target. The metaphor is simple. The climate change is not a fixed problem. as we solved once it is a target that keep moving where we aim today I'm going to tell you what the mean for how we plan and design city and
share some of my lab's research on how city can keep up with the uncomfortable statement every city in this room were designed for climate that no longer exist.
Our planning and design engineering standards drainage pipe load section green special cooling loads are calibrated on historical average decades usually 30 years of the past weathers.
They worked when the climbing was stationary, but as you know, it's not stationary anymore. How fast is the target moving? The World Meetical Organization confirmed that 2025 came in at about
1.44 degree above the pre-industrial baseline. And then 2023, 24 and 25 was the warmest three warmest year in a record according back to 176 years.
Notice the third number 2015 to 2025. The 11 mist year on the record are the exactly the last 11 years.
This is a baseline in motion and because 90% of the excess heat installed in the ocean the this mo this motion has enormous inertia will not stop when we want it to
in South Korea well the 2025 the last summer we recorded 29.4 24 heatwave days nationwide nearly the three times the normal probably this year 2026 this summer would be one of the warmest or
hottest year I believe soul had 46 tropical line at all time record and in September the city of the kungan received received 152 mm of the rain in a single hour far beyond the most urban drainage was designed to carry. 2025 was our second
warmest year ever. Immediately after 24 the warmest year. Each of these number used to be called extreme but these are becoming the operating condition of our city.
The record are a one of spike. What we just measure is how the climate system now behave. Three things was pointed out. First extremely intensify faster than the average. Every additional fraction of the degree strengthen the rare event first and fastest.
Second, the record no longer simply break. Day shutters by margin once thought impossible. Week long heat waves far outside anything I've observed become steadily more like a warming axelite.
Sir the hazard increasing in a combination heat with drought storm surge with drown power and these compound event multiply damage beyond any single hazard.
The char make it concrete a heat extreme that struck once a decade in a pre-industrial climate already this pike almost three times as often as one degree of warming and often five times as often at two degree we are already past 1.2 too.
And here's a deepen problem. Not just the mo the target moving, but what we can see is blurring less and less clearly. Hological decline declared it back in 200 2008. The stationerity is dead. Our design standard assume that the past statistic describe the future and the founding assumption planning design
engineering no longer holds. So return period lose their meaning. The so-called 100year flaw returning within a decade and its true frequency can no longer be read from the record. And looking forward the projection fair now. Each decade ahead widened the range of plausible climate and the future is fair
or passing not a single line. The diagram show one measured past many plausible futures. If we design a single forecast line we will be wrong. We have to design for the range.
Why does this matter mo most of the for the city? Three reasons. First mismatch of the time scale. We build the city once and it stay for let's say 50 to 100 years more than 100 years right while the crime baseline not shift meaningfully every decades. And the second the oven fabric the hard surface
itself amplify the risk hard surface concrete aspir trap heat and shed water. So the heat island by day and fresh flood you know our heat harder inside the city and the third the third concentration city pack people asset network together. So one extreme event cascades through the system. So the
question is what planning should do about it. The problem is not what city failed to plan. We plan city intensively and carefully. The problem is the structural planning itself. A master plan is drawn once approved and then exeacted over 10 or 20 years.
Diagonus happen at the beginning of the project and then it stop while the climate keep updating every single year. By the time the plan is built, we are aiming where the target used to be.
Static plane cannot hit a moving target. So what non-static planning look like? So we cannot predict the method must chain the classic chain we were all trained on predict the future optimize a design for it and build it assume a future that we can know
under deep a certainty the logic must invert from predict then act to monitor and adapt. If the forecasts expire quickly diagonal must become continuously rather than one spike. If the optimal itself keep moving design must keep option open robust adaptable
beat optimal for one future and if the certainty never came never come the distance must be shared. Choosing among future is automatic a value judgment because legitimacy as much as accuracy is what make a plan hold.
This three shift are the methodological necessity. I propose three shift shift one from static plan to continuous diagnosis.
City should be rest through data time not once at the start of the project. Shift the two from the fixed design to flexible system. Since we cannot predict the exact future, we should design design. We should design neighborhood that can adapt. Shift three from silo to share theism. Data should create option that government businesses and citizen
decide on together which is called the coordination. Let me show you each shift using my lab's previous studies. Shift one continuous diagonals city are hard. They are already built.
So carbon absorption green space has to feed into leftover gaps. Bacon lot on the vegetable lot even road corridor. My lab built algorithm to read the whole city from data.