The UNTHINKABLE is about to Happen to Stocks – Transcript

00:00In a month, three and a half trillion dollars has been wiped off the biggest AI stocks. Intel's down 43% Google, Meta, and Nvidia down all by double digits. And the Nasdaq 100 which tracks all those big tech names is down 10% like this sleepy head over here.

00:19But your portfolio might actually look fine because the rest of the market has held up. Yet most [clears throat] investors I talk to are scared. Unscared people often sell at the worst moment and I want to fix that here for you because there's a pattern that's just turned up seven times in the last 70 years. It's about who controls Washington election time.

00:42And it could be lining up again within days. Every time a year later stocks had done something most people would call unthinkable. But in one of those seven things got a lot worse and that one looks a lot like right now.

01:01So I want to teach you how to check if your money is in the danger zone and what to do before this gets worse and whether you're watching this on election day or a week or a month later actually makes no difference because the pattern plays out over two years. So what do we know? We know the big money on Wall Street's been selling for weeks.

01:21So do they know something that you don't? Well by the end of this video you will. So we're not going to panic. We're going to have an actual plan. If you're wondering who the heck I am, my name is Felix Nicholas Preen. I'm an economist and former investment banker. I'm the founder of the Preen Institute where we publish economic research on financial markets and also provide instructions on how they actually work. I take zero sponsorships, zero endorsements ever so I can say whatever I like and offend

01:47whoever I wish. Now there's a lot of stuff going on here at the same time so I put all of that research behind this video into a free report. It's got the full list of all the 18 AI stocks that have been hit, uh the data going all the way back to the 1950s, who won, what stocks take next, the one year this pattern went badly wrong, and and a sample checklist to run over on your own holdings. So download that, it's free at

02:14felixfriends.org/techcrash and the link is in the description down below and there seems to be cat fur hanging off me somewhere, which is unusual. Well, actually it isn't. So your index fund is kind of hiding what's going on there. So if you look at your pension portfolio or something, the damage isn't that obvious cuz the S&P is only down 3 and 1/2 %. So if you just looked at that, you think not a lot has

02:40happened. The Nasdaq, the 100 top tech stocks is down 10 %. Same market, same month, two very very different outcomes. How can both be happening if the market is tech dominated?

02:53Well, an index is weighted by size and the biggest companies count the most. And when the money sells out of just a handful of giant tech stocks and moves into the other 490 companies, the tech index falls really hard, while the broader index, the S&P, barely moves.

03:10And you could see it on one day last week, just one day. The Nasdaq dropped over a percent. The Dow Jones, which is the sort of older industrial companies, the dusty ones, went up by 0.4 % on the same day. So money doesn't vanish. It doesn't leave the market. Money moves from one little pot to another little pot seeking to higher returns. But that 10 % number on the Nasdaq, that has a name. That's how serious this is. When an index drops

03:3710 % from its high, it's called a correction. It is the word the professionals use. Well, it's the stage stage before a proper crash. So the Nasdaq 100 is there now and people are rightfully frightened.

03:52There is a fear index that CNN puts out, apparently the only useful thing that ever produced. It's called the fear and greed index. It measures how nervous or greedy the market is on a scale of zero to 100. Zero is just blind panic, you know, headless chickens. And as I'm recording this, it's sitting at 23 which is extreme fear.

04:14So why does that matter? Because scared people sell and they usually sell near the bottom, not the top. And just put the damage in in in money for a for a moment because percentages hide the pain. Say you've got $200,000 in a tech-heavy fund, which is where a lot of pension money's been ending up the last few decades. A 10% drop is $20,000 gone. A 20% fall, and

04:40some of these names are well past that, is $40,000 gone. So it's a, you know, a kitchen you don't get to redo. Oh my god, the pain. But no more seriously, it's a year of retirement that you don't have to work.

04:54And the people that who hurts this the most are not actually the gamblers, the GameStop lunatics. No, it's your 55-year-old person who's done everything right. They put their money in a big fund years ago. They set it, they forgot about it, and they got on with their life and they wanted to retire now and now they're like, ouch.

05:12Because the fund was weighted towards the winners of the past. So they're holding the exact stocks that are falling the fastest and they've got no idea why. So that's the first thing you want to you want to check and you can do that again going to Winston up the link down below.

05:31And and we have a filter called the danger zone and and and you type in what you own and it flags the names carrying the most risk right now. And some of the stocks screaming at the top are the ones you've already heard about. Coup we've down, Nebula's down 40%, Intel cut in half, right?

05:49Which is the same as 50% but I thought we made it to make the presentation a bit more interesting. Minus 50% halved. Yes, very smart people making my slides. So spotting that before everybody else is what?

06:06It's a skill. It's not a crystal ball, it's a skill. Skill you haven't been taught. Why have you not been taught it? Well, the industry makes a lot of money out of you feeling really scared so you buy their index funds and whatever products they want to sell you and they collect fees. That's basically the way Wall Street makes money out of you.

06:24And in my humble opinion, the sell off isn't over. And I think you need to hear it plainly. It might pause, it might even bounce for a while and tempt everyone back in. That's usually what happens. But when the real move comes, and I think it will, it won't be a few percent.

06:42It'll hit you hard and it'll hit the people who felt safest because the index looked calm right up until it did not. And the ones who get hurt are the people still clinging to the last cycle's winners or the money is already moving to somewhere new and I don't want that to be you.

06:59So this is what I'm going to do about it. This Saturday, I'm going to run a free live training called The Great Pivot. 2 hours, live on Zoom, no charge, just free information, free education.

07:13And I'll teach you how to tell when the leadership in the market is changing, how to check the stocks that you already own, and how to build a plan for both outcomes, whoever ends up running washing, which we will know by then, which will be helpful.

07:28So my goal is not to give you a long stock list and say go and buy all of them because that list will expire in a few days. My goal is to give you the skill so you can make your own list for this pivot and for the next one because there is always another pivot. So grab yourself a ticket, it's free at greypivot, greatpivot.org even. Link again is in the description down below and I'll show you the exact setup there.

07:54That'll work for you if you're in the US, if you're in Europe, even if you're in Asia, if you're in down under, you might have to stay up a little bit later, ask for permission, you know, ask for the thing if you're not a grown up yet. But it's live. There is no replay. So if you really really want to learn, show up. If you don't, you know, go to something else.

08:12So why is AI cracked right now after two years of basically going up in a in a straight line? Well, start with price. AI got expensive. When a share price climbs far faster than the company's actual profits, you're paying more and more for every dollar it really earns. And that's fine while everyone believes the profits are coming. They're coming. I promise you, they're coming.

08:34The moment that belief wobbles just a little bit, wobble is a wonderful word, isn't it? Um the most expensive stocks tend to fall the hardest and the AI leaders were some of the most expensive stocks in the world.

08:47And then there is spending. These companies are pouring tens of billions of dollars into data centers and chips. Actually, it's hundreds of billions to build out AI. And investors were like, woohoo, for two years. This earnings season, the mood flipped a little. And the big names reported the last results.

09:06The market started to punishing the ones spending the most and asked the obvious question. When does all this money actually come back as profit? That's how company could post a really strong-looking result and still watch its share price drop 20%, 30% the next morning.

09:26And then the third part to this is the backdrop. The interest rate, the American government, yes, those buggers pay to borrow for 10 years, sets the tone for everything else. And their tone isn't very polite right now. When that rate is high and a safe, well, allegedly safe government bond pays you a decent return, it starts to look more attractive than