Get Ready For The BIGGEST Economic Boom Of Your Lifetime! – Transcript

00:00The biggest rally of our lifetime may have just started this week. That's what Winston just told me. And it is set off by the one thing everybody was told would crash the stock market. For months, people had warned that this exact election result, a Democratic sweep would wreck voices and stocks. So, they sold. They went to cash. And 90% of them are now sitting there waiting for a

00:27crash. Well, that hasn't really come. unless you're one very specific sector. And this has happened seven times since 1954. If you've been watching me, you already know about this. A Republican president loses both halves of Congress to Democrats. A year later, every single time stocks were higher and this week made it the eighth. Wall Street knew the Dow has had its best day of the year,

00:53but the market does not go up as one. And maybe some of you are in pain. If you're in pain right now, put pain in the comments down below. It's all your fault, but we'll fix it for you. Because while the Dow threw its party, one corner got hammered and the stocks everybody had piled into for the last two years dropped under a line that the pros watch harder than almost anything.

01:14Now, the next thing is annoying, but I was positioned for that before the votes were counted. I will pull up all of this life in a minute, including how far stocks ran those seven previous times. So stick with me. This one really, really does matter. My name is Felix Nicholas Pin. I'm an economist and former investment banker. I'm also the founder of the PIN Institute where we publish research on financial markets and also instructions on on how they actually work. I take zero sponsorships,

01:41zero endorsements ever. So I can say whatever I like and that's just the way I like it. And no, this is not a political video. I get accused of that all the time. I don't care who you voted for. Red, blue, green, yellow, whatever. It's fine by me. Your money doesn't have a party and it shouldn't. So, there's a lot of stuff that's moving this week.

02:00Very, very important to understand the election, oil, the chip stocks, gold, the lots. I put all of that research behind this video into one free report from our institute. It's got the full table of those seven elections with what stocks did one month, three months, six months, 12 months later, the sectors that have tended to lead after midterms, the ones that have lagged, a checklist, tons of stuff. It's all free.

02:24felixfriends.org/boom is where you get that. It's down below in the description in the link as well. And I absolutely love that you're watching this because I love people who want to learn about how the markets really work because in my humble opinion, it's the path to freedom. So, let's start with the bit everybody gets raw. For most this year, you couldn't open up social media without someone telling you the stock market would crash. I may have been guilty of that once or twice myself, but once you make it past the headline, you'll understand

02:50what I'm actually talking about. If the Democrats took Congress, people were saying this, and I saw one post this week that put it perfectly. Somebody wrote out this line, "The stock market will crash when Democrats are elected."

03:02And underneath it, it said the market, and it showed a chart of a dollar invested in American stocks since 1926. Well, have a look at the red presidents on this chart. It's on the screen here. Blue president. And what happens? Well, the line just goes up and up and up and up. Nearly a hundred years of it.

03:21Then the results came in. Democrats took the House and the Senate. And the next day, the Dow Jones, which tracks 30 of America's biggest, oldest, shiniest companies, went up 3%. That's 1500 points. Best day of the year. The S&P, America's 500 biggest companies, went up 1.6%. And the NASDAQ, which is stuffed with those technology companies, was up 1.4%. So, who got hurt? Well, not the people who did nothing for once. The

03:49people who got hurt are the ones who did something. They sold in October and they went into cash because they got scared and now they got a terrible choice. Buy back in higher or sit and watch. There's a second group that also got hurt and they don't even know it yet. Say you're, you know, 50 years old. You did everything right. You put your money in a big fund years ago and you got on with your life. You worked hard. Well, look at your fund this week and it probably looks fine because the index went up,

04:15but underneath it was carnage in places. Energy stocks down over 6%. This is a sector rotation thing you can track in the Winston app. Links down below, free trial and all that you don't like if you cancel it. So, the chip stocks also fell through a line the professionals treat as the difference between an uptrend and a downtrend. And I put it on the screen here for you. This is SMH, which is the semiconductor index fund. the sort of major one and there's the line on here

04:42which is blue right and I have to check the glasses make it green and um it's it's my version of you know LSD it's it's it's healthier for you and um that 200 day moving average line which is what that is we've just dropped below it was the last time we did that well we last did that in April 2025 which was actually a pretty good buying opportunity if you go back to it right the previous time we did that

05:08meaningfully was in September mber or rather sort of early 2022, right? It was trading at 84, then it's trading at 498 right now. Again, I'm not telling you to buy this. I'm just saying these little dips have historically been pretty good.

05:21Why? Because the world actually runs on semiconductors whether you like them or not. So, what went up? Well, consumer discretionary, consumer staples, real estate, financials, healthcare. These went up against more than the index, right? If you look at the absolute returns, they did even better. But I always like to go look at compare it against the index because that's kind of tells me a lot more about where the money is really flowing. But you can see some big beautiful winners and some

05:47pretty horrendous losers. But remember the market overreacts both ways every time. It overreacted to the fear in October. Some corners overreacted this week in my humble opinion. And if you can't tell which bit is the overreaction, you end up selling the bottom on the one thing and holding the top on another. And it's never really very much fun. And spotting that is a skill, a skill that can be definitely learned. So think about where that leaves you right now. Your money is

06:15sitting in a market that just changed leadership in 24 hours. Oil fell 8% in a day. Energy got thrown out of the window with a baby in the bathroom water, right? Um which is good for me because I made money out of it. But the chip stocks that carried the whole market for two years, they're like beaten up and crying in the corner. And at the same time, the shops, the banks, the big platforms that own the data centers were bid apart. I explain to you why that

06:41happened. But if your money is in the wrong pot, and these are just 12 of these pots. They're actually about 150 in total, but this is just a simplification. Well, it doesn't really matter how good the index looks. You lose. You lose slowly, and you don't notice until, you know, your retirement gets pushed back by a few years. In my humble opinion, the window on this is short. Look at those seven elections again in a minute and I'll and you will see the biggest part of the move came in

07:07the first three months. On average, stocks were up more than 10% within three months of that vote. I'm not promising you that I haven't got a crystal ball, but that's the historic pattern. The clock started ticking on Tuesday. Spotting where the money is going next is a skill, a skill you were never taught because school and college is largely useless when it comes to money. So, our whole mission here is to write that wrong. So, this Saturday, the

07:357th of November, I'm going to teach you live and for free. And I call it the great pivot because the money pivots from chips into something else. It's at 9:00 a.m. New York time, 2 p.m. London time, 300 p.m. If you live on the Soviet continent of Europe, uh if you're in Asia or down under, you're going to have to figure out what time it is. You may have to be up a little bit late and ask for parents permission. And our goal there is to leave you with a game plan for not just this market but for every

08:03market to come so that you are more skilled. Not a stock tip list but make you more skilled. So on Saturday I'll show you exactly how I worked out what was actually going to happen here. And I'm not always right. Absolutely not.

08:17But the point is not to be horribly wrong. And if you just learn that you're going to do a lot better. So join us at greatpivot.org. Link is down in the description down below. Dualingo stock is flying by the way. Apparently everyone's going to learn Spanish in the US.

08:32Uh so back to those seven elections. This is a chart from I don't know who. Um looks a bit like the FT but it's probably AI. Um it shows every time since 1954 that a Republican president has lost Congress to the Democrats at midterms. 1954 and 1958 that was Eisenhower. 70 was Nixon. 74 was Ford. 86 was Reagan 90 under the you

08:57know Bush the the primary uh and then 2006 under Bush the secondary and that happened seven times. So it also shows what the S&P did afterwards. That's what these little bars are. One month later 2% up on average. 3 months later 10% up on average. 6 months later 17% up on average. And a year later 15% up on average. Positive all seven times. And that's pretty extraordinary, isn't it?

09:2315% in a year on average after the exact results that some of you are celebrating and some of you are terrified of depending on what side of the aisle you happen to wake up. And Trump is now the eighth president on this list. And it isn't just me putting this out. JP Morgan, the mighty, their market intelligence team, which apparently is the most intelligent team in the world.

09:43Just ask them, they'll tell you. They put out a note this week and they say the S&P 500 has been up a year after every single midterm election since 1950. who ever won with an average gain of around 15% which is what I just talked to and since 1990 they've broken it down even further. Here it is three months after the midterms 5% up six months after 11% up 9 months after 12% up a year after 14% up and so on. So

10:08it's been up every single time since 1990. So why why would Wall Street cheer a government that can't agree on anything because that's what's going to happen. But let me put it in in in in as plain English as I can. When the White House and Congress are run by different parties, almost nothing big gets done.

10:28Taxes stay where they are. Regulation doesn't really change. It's like having well gridlock. And guess what? The market loves gridlock. The more gridlocked your government, the better the stock market. Why? Because it's predictable. We know nothing big's going to happen. No bright shiny ideas, no new, you know, let's save the world type things. Um, wonderful. If you're an investor and maybe you think it's terrible because you really wanted your

10:54party to do something particularly special, but you know what? The stock market, your money doesn't care for special or any kind of change. The right now the constant is just about good enough. Now, is there an exception to this? Yes. Ford 1974, we were down 10 months 10% a month later, 18% up a year higher. Why? It was high oil and sticky inflation. And there's of course some parallels to what's happening in the

11:20Middle East there. So pay attention to that. And Reagan just did a well it was up a percent later because we had the 1987 crash. So this does not say be blind everything is going to go up in a straight line by the way. Right? Always invest and trade with a plan. But let me just break down one or two more of these rotations because it's so important that here's that table again I was just showing you. And it's really really personal to you and your portfolio