小米財報大起底！稅前利潤26.8%靠「炒股浮盈」撐場？手機毛利崩至8.3%、造車毛利見頂回落、Q4現金流暴跌88.7%！華爾街三大投行集體降級，戴維斯雙殺已成定局？「人車家生態」估值神話正在崩塌 – Transcript

00:00Official narratives refuse to acknowledge the truth, and earning season is here again. A couple days ago, Xiaomi released its 2025 annual financial report. Let's start with Xiaomi's stock price. Xiaomi's stock price has slid all the way from its 2025 high of 61 Hong Kong dollars and 45 cents to around 30 Hong Kong dollars, it's been cut in half. After the earnings release, those idiots in Xiaomi's management proudly announced 457.3 billion in annual revenue, up 15%, with a net profit of 39.2 billion, a record high.

00:23Sounds pretty impressive, right? So, you think your Xiaomi legal department is pretty tough, don't you? Fine, the more of a scumbag your legal team acts like, the more I'll enjoy tearing them apart. Alright, let's get started. Xiaomi's legal team, pay close attention. Let's see what kind of rot lies beneath the polished exterior of Xiaomi's so-called Human X Car X Home ecosystem, and what kind of crisis is really hidden inside.

00:42From the car manufacturing business to PR disasters, the carefully manicured financial reports, and the collective downgrades by Wall Street banks, I'm going to strip it all away layer by layer to show you exactly what the hell Xiaomi is playing at and what state the group is in. Let's start with Xiaomi's car business. In the capital story Xiaomi is building, smart electric vehicles are the core engine supporting their multi-billion dollar valuation and the lifeline they're using to escape the low-margin smartphone Red Ocean.

01:06But if you look past the filters and marketing fluff from Lei Jun's press conferences, what has Xiaomi Auto actually experienced in reality over the past year? Let's start with the first major incident. On the night of March 29, 2025, a Xiaomi Su7 crashed on an expressway in Anhui and burst into flames.

01:21The doors wouldn't open, leaving three young women to burn to death inside. This was an extremely tragic accident, but how did Xiaomi respond? In a very short time, Xiaomi quickly shifted all responsibility onto the deceased driver, emphasizing that the system showed a speed of 97 kilometers per hour before the crash, while ignoring every core question raised by the victims' families.

01:39These are critical, life or death issues, including why a collision would lead to an immediate inferno and why the hell the doors wouldn't open after the impact. And then look at Xiaomi's bizarre maneuvering. What's even more infuriating? It's that aside from hauling away the wreck car for their so-called appraisal, Xiaomi never proactively contacted the victims' families.

01:55They didn't even make a single phone call to express condolences. Not only was there no proper response, but Xiaomi's legal team went on a rampage, suing every content creator who spoke about this, while their PR department pressured platforms to take down all videos regarding the incident. Do you see whose shadow this is? This behavioral pattern is no different from Lei Jun's father-son dynamic with the CCP.

02:13It's exactly that kind of relationship. The automotive industry is fundamentally different from consumer electronics. If your phone freezes, you just restart it, but if a car's system fails, it can cost lives. Xiaomi clearly still treats car safety like a fast-moving consumer good, banking on the fact that they hold all the back-end data and can blame the owners for everything.

02:28Their legal logic is even more thuggish, relying on connections with local government and CCP courts. They don't care what you say. If you dare to speak up, they'll sue you and try to shut you up. But consumers can also vote with their wallets, right? Couldn't we just refuse to buy their stupid cars? If you think that's already outrageous, what comes next is even more explosive.

02:46To build a premium brand image, how did Xiaomi package that Su7 priced at 814,900 yuan? They marketed it as the fastest four-door car at the Nurburgring, known as Niu Bay. It is globally recognized as the most difficult and authoritative test track. Xiaomi heavily promoted a stunning lap time of 6 minutes and 22 seconds, but what kind of car did they actually use?

03:07In reality, the record was set by a non-production prototype that underwent extreme track-focused modifications, whereas the production version delivered to customers only managed a lap time of 7 minutes, oh 4.957 seconds. That's a difference of over 40 seconds, a world of difference in racing. More seriously, over 300 owners have already filed a class-action lawsuit against the production Su7.

03:25Where does the core controversy lie? Xiaomi officially claimed it perfectly replicated the carbon-fiber dual-duct front hood from the Nurburgring prototype, with an optional price of 42,000 yuan. Owners grew suspicious, took the hood off, and paid for wind tunnel tests themselves, only to be embarrassed on the spot, as the internal structure was identical to the standard version. Look at real track-ready performance cars like the GT-R.

03:47The vents on their hoods are always connected to ducts that provide cooling for the brakes or the engine bay, but on this Xiaomi, there isn't a single air duct or cooling channel. When you blow smoke at it, the air just swirls around those two holes, it doesn't go in at all. Even professional engineers couldn't stand it and called it out directly, stating that this is nothing but purely stupid, fake ventilation.

04:04To put it bluntly, owners spent 40,000 in hard-earned cash just to have two useless fake vents installed. This is just insulting the intelligence of consumers, and what was Xiaomi's proposed solution? A mere 2,000 yuan worth of points, or having owners join the back of the queue to wait 30-40 weeks to swap it for a standard aluminum hood? This thuggish attitude from Xiaomi led prospective owners to rather lose 20,000 yuan to cancel their orders, with many hiring lawyers to demand a refund plus triple damages.

04:24So, how did Xiaomi respond to all this negative publicity? Well, that brings us to their fanatic marketing and legal department's high pressure tactics. To cover up the weakness of their product, Xiaomi transplanted the toxic fan culture atmosphere from the smartphone industry into the automotive world. What does Xiaomi's legal department actually do every day? As of the end of 2025, Xiaomi's legal department has conducted legal assessments on 20,000 leads of negative sentiment, prioritized monitoring over 200 online accounts, and filed civil lawsuits against 92 of them. The most tragic case is a Duyan account called, it turns out its imagination, a car influencer with over a million followers who was reported

04:52by Xiaomi's legal department for alleged malicious defamation after posting a crash test comparison between the Xiaomi SU-7 and the Zikr 001, forcing them to issue an apology video under platform pressure. Even after being forced to apologize, it didn't end there. This blogger was detained across provinces by the police on charges of harming commercial reputation and was officially arrested in early 2025. Who was it that arrested this blogger? It was the Haidian branch of the Beijing Public Security Bureau, whereas Xiaomi's global headquarters, it's right at No. 33 Cherokee Middle Road, Haidian district, Beijing, Xiaomi's legal department was particularly smug at the time, issuing an arrogant statement

05:22declaring that they would bring the blogger and their accomplices to justice according to the law. As a battle to defend commercial reputation, just this past February 2026, the case was heard in Beijing's Haidian district. The prosecution charged the defendant with a crime of damaging commercial reputation. Gao Chang, the original blogger who was imagined or targeted, entered a not-guilty plea in court, and currently, the case has not yet been sentenced. But what's even more absurd? A rural live streamer in Shandong was selling millet, the yellow-grain kind, online. Because he mimicked Lei Jun's way of speaking or his mannerisms,

05:49he was directly targeted by Xiaomi's legal department for, associating with lay-style marketing, and malicious mockery of Xiaomi executives was also heavily cracked down upon. Damn it, Lei Jun, are you even more vicious than the damn regulatory authorities? And then, the video of him selling these agricultural products was taken down. Cars are long-cycle durable consumer goods. Xiaomi is attempting to cover up engineering design flaws through paid internet trolls, inciting division and legal lawsuits.

06:09This behavior can no longer be called a moral. It simply has no bottom line. This has caused Xiaomi's brand image of honest pricing and moving the heart to basically collapse. Once trust is overdrawn, combined with the severe over-capacity of Chinese electric vehicles, I wonder how much longer Lei Jun can keep this up? Okay, the issues with the cars they produce.

06:24If they encountered any of these in Europe or the US, a single one would be enough to find them into bankruptcy. Xiaomi's legal and public relations teams are really something. In less than two years, they've managed to ruin years of accumulated brand goodwill. Once the first wave of fanatical IP fans has been harvested, when you face those consumer groups with independent thinking skills who prioritize real safety, the conversion rate of this crappy Xiaomi car's so-called brand premium facing a catastrophic slide is only a matter of time, and it's already starting to show in their financial reports.

06:48Let's look at their report now. Xiaomi states in its latest report that its 2025 net profit was $49.646 billion. Sounds like a lot, right? But if we look closely at the consolidated income statement, there is an item called, Fair Value Changes of Financial Instruments measured at Fair Value, and this figure contributed an astonishing $13.3 billion to the 2025 total profit. Whereas in the same period in 2024, it was only $1.05 billion.

07:09Let's take a look at the breakdown of Xiaomi's 2025 pre-tax profit. Please look at this chart. Nearly a quarter or 26.8% of Xiaomi's pre-tax profit comes entirely from paper gains on financial instruments. Simply put, it's money made from stock trading, and it's just paper wealth. No actual cash has come in for a company that claims to be a leader in hardcore technology. Having nearly a quarter of its pre-tax profit come from stock speculation and wealth management is absolutely ridiculous. This means that once a cyclical reversal

07:36occurs in the macro capital market, these billions in paper gains could vanish into thin air, and might even trigger massive impairment losses the following year. Now, the following data is even more shocking. There is a classic saying in financial analysis. Profits can be manipulated, but cash flow cannot. This saying couldn't be more fitting for Xiaomi.

07:53Xiaomi reported a pre-tax profit of $7.12 billion in Q4 2025, but the operating cash flow for the same period was a mere $614 million. What does this even mean? It's like your boss telling you the company made $100 million today, but when you check the bank account, there's only $8 million left. So the question is, where did the remaining $92 million go? This question is exactly the same one we face with Xiaomi's financial report. Looking at this chart, blue represents paper profit, and red represents operating cash flow. In the third quarter, cash flow was still $5.47 billion, but by the fourth quarter, it plummeted off a cliff to $614 million,

08:23a year-on-year drop of 88.7%. This means the $7 billion in so-called profit Xiaomi reported in Q4 didn't turn into real cash. It was just a simple manipulation. So, where did the money go? The answer is hidden in the balance sheet. As of the end of 2025, Xiaomi's inventory soared to $80.989 billion, compared to $62.5 billion in 2024, that's a year-on-year increase of $18.5 billion, while the inventory impairment provision has already reached $6.848 billion.

08:45Under the dual pressure of consumer electronics and new energy vehicle pricing, this nearly $81 billion in high-level inventory is by no means a proactive stock up. It is a clear symptom of massive overstocking and poor product sales. The reported paper profits have all turned into rapidly depreciating electronic junk and unsold cars. This is a ticking time bomb that could detonate their profits at any moment. Let's look at this chart.

09:04It explains everything quite clearly. Xiaomi's Q4 2025 revenue grew by only 7.3% year-on-year, but selling and promotional expenses skyrocketed to $9.926 billion, a massive 28.4% increase. Meanwhile, operating profit actually plummeted by 29.9%. In other words, the growth rate of marketing expenses is 3.9 times that of revenue. What does this mean? It means Xiaomi is relying entirely on burning cash through subsidies and high-cost advertising to maintain artificial revenue growth when a company must increase marketing spend by 30% to generate just 7% revenue growth.

09:34What is that? That's precisely why their operating profit margin is in a freefall. What else does it show? It points to an even more serious problem. It shows that their so-called business model mode has been completely breached. Earlier, we analyzed the finances from a macro perspective. Now, let's dive into the core business indicators to see how each line of Xiaomi's human car home ecosystem is actually performing. First is the collapse of the Xiaomi smartphone line, which manifests as having zero pricing power in the supply chain. The smartphone business is an absolute pillar for Xiaomi's

10:01revenue. But this critical business line suffered an epic collapse in Q4 2025. Please look at the bottom right corner of this chart. Smartphone gross margins slid from 12% in Q4 2024 to 11.1% by Q3 2025, followed by a cliff like drop in the fourth quarter, crashing directly into the single digits at 8.3%. Correlating with this, Q4 2025 smartphone shipments fell by 11.6% year-on-year, and smartphone revenue hit 44.3 billion down 13.6% year-on-year, a triple hit to shipments, revenue, and margins.

10:29What does management attribute this failure to? They blame rising prices of core components and intensified global competition. But this actually exposes the most fatal weakness of Xiaomi's business model, having zero pricing power against the core industrial supply chain. It's simple. When upstream suppliers like Samsung and Hinex raise memory prices, Xiaomi lacks the brand premium that Apple has. Besides, the premium segment is dominated by Huawei and Lei Jun simply doesn't dare to compete with them. At the same time, they can't pass the cost of their mediocre phones onto consumers, so they have to swallow them, driving the gross margin down to a single digit 8.3%. This completely declares that the